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A proposal to eliminate the spread of COVID-19 in Ireland
This is a long one. There is no TL;DR, but Google tells me it should take about 10 minutes to read. Or, you can skip to The Plan - Summary if you want the bullet points. But why should you give this any time at all? My background is in data analysis. Making sense of numbers is what I do for a living. I have been studying COVID-19 since I was locked down in March and the experience has been frustrating in equal measure. The difference between what was happening on the ground, and the story that the media told was genuinely alarming. The government / NPHET never even tried to stop the virus getting into the country, and no one held them to account for their (non)decisions. The disastrous consequences are all around us, and much of it was preventable. Six months later, and the country has barely moved on. The ‘experts’ have no goals and little control over the virus. The media frame every issue as a crass binary choice between more or less restrictions and are otherwise happy just to have people to point their fingers at. The government / NPHET has nothing to offer the people, other than admonishments to do better and repeated cycle of restrictions. Meanwhile students, artists, the over 70s, small business owners, the entire events and hospitality industries, and regular people who cannot WFH have been left swinging in the wind. Some have been evicted, others are relying on drugs to get by. This situation is not just a problem for one or two parts of our society: this is a widespread degradation of our quality of life. If I can do anything to help, I feel obliged to try. Context As I see it, we have three choices:
Give up = ‘herd immunity’ / Great Barrington Declaration
Take the path of least resistance = ‘Living With The Virus’ (living in fear of the virus)
Solve the problem = elimination / eradication
I won’t argue over technocratic definitions like ‘elimination’, ‘eradication’ or ‘suppression’. These distinctions are semantic in an environment of oppressive civic restrictions, mass unemployment, waves of business closures, and general misery. Whatever gets us to a place where we can live our lives as normal (or close enough), and the public health infrastructure can take care of the virus, that’s what I’m aiming for. This proposal cannot work without public support. No proposal can work without public support. Public adherence is the single most important variable in the equation, yet it is the one that the politicians and the media and the ‘experts’ have ignored. FG burned through a lot of goodwill in the first lockdown (and money, and resources, and lives…). Instead of vilifying people who aren’t adhering to the rules, policymakers need to recognise the sacrifices that the people made (which were subsequently squandered) and they need to earn that trust back. This proposal cannot work without support from the North. That doesn’t mean that we need to convince them to adopt our plan. It means we need to convince them that the goal is worthwhile and achievable. From there we can work together to coordinate our policies. Managing our own affairs with competence, would be a good start. Picking up the phone to talk to them, instead of trying to browbeat them through the media, would also help. Irrespective of your goals or beliefs, some facts are certain: there will be lockdowns, there will be government spending to support the economy, and the virus will demand public health resources. All of that will happen in the coming months and years, whether we have a plan or not. The question is whether those resources are used to solve the problem, or whether they are wasted on a plan that keeps us going around in circles. So yes, there will be lockdowns in this proposal, but they will not be FG lockdowns i.e. lock them down and throw away the key. Through intelligent policies and a greater mobilisation of resources, we can do so much more with our lockdowns to reduce the burden on the people and make their experience more tolerable. Indeed, that trade-off always exists in public policy: better policymaking = happier people. Which is why the politicians usually get the blame, and rightly so. We need to move to a more ‘war time’ mindset. Not because we need a shared enemy to unite us, but because we need to mobilise every possible resource at our disposal and focus it on the single most important issue affecting us all. We need more tests, we need vehicles for mobile testing units, we need facilities for quarantines. Wherever there is spare capacity, we need to find a way to put it to good use. We need to take most of the power away from the narrow-minded medics, and get the rest of our society and our civic infrastructure involved in planning e.g. community representatives, legal experts, business leaders, An Garda, the army etc. People want to invest in their communities, they want to help their friends and neighbours. There are people all over the country who would rather be volunteering as part of a national plan to get rid of COVID-19, than to be sitting at home on the PUP, going crazy listening to the ‘experts’ – who failed to prevent this – talk about more lockdowns. We need to harness that latent energy and build it into the plan. One of the most important factors that is within our control, is the degree to which policymakers communicate with the people. And I mean real communication, not press releases or attention-seeking speeches from the other side of the world. We need to talk to the people, listen to them, answer their questions, take their feedback on board. The people aren’t stupid. They know a good plan when they see it – which is why few are paying attention to the ‘Living With The Virus’ stuff – and they have valuable information that can help make that plan work. Underlying these points is a need to create intelligent rules, and to enforce them strictly. Strict does not mean harsh. Strict enforcement is not authoritarianism, and it is not an invitation to a fight; it is simply administrative competence. In the context of a contagious outbreak, administrative competence is the difference between life and death. I’ll finish this section with the caveat that all parameters are suggestions or placeholders. The exact numbers will depend on resources, on more data and further analysis, and on input from communities and other stakeholders – all of which is within our control. The Plan – Summary Like any problem in life, if you can’t solve it directly, you break it down into smaller, less complex parts. Instead of putting the whole country into lockdown and trying to eradicate the virus from the whole island at the same time – a miserable experience for all – we should go county by county until the job is done. We seal off a county, flood it with resources, clear it of COVID-19, and then let it reopen as normal. We repeat the process for neighbouring counties and then combine them when they are cleared, to create a larger ‘Cleared Zone’. The process continues and the Cleared Zone keeps growing until it covers the whole island. This approach allows us to focus our resources on one area at a time (nurses, doctors, tests, volunteers etc) instead of spreading them over the whole country. We can be more comprehensive in our testing and quarantining measures, and more confident in our plans. Short, sharp, strict lockdowns work best. By maximising the ratio of resources to population, we also lower the burden on the people. In particular, we minimise the amount of time that people spend in lockdown, and the less time they spend in lockdown, the more likely the plan is to work. This structured approach also makes it easier for us to measure our progress and make reliable forecasts. We can allocate our resources more efficiently and plan our responses more effectively. Observers can watch our progress and judge for themselves whether it is a good idea (i.e. politicians in the North and / or protestors in Dublin). Perhaps most important of all, the structure makes it easier to explain the idea to the people and get buy-in before anything happens. We can outline the plan, explain how it works, explain how it compares to the alternatives, and then give them realistic estimates of what would be required and how long it would take. Then we can hear their feedback and take the conversation and planning from there. I have heard any people talking about elimination and ZeroCovid, but do any of them have a plan for getting to zero? Or a plan to get the people on board? Step 1: More structure and responsibility from leaders Step 2: Less uncertainty, easier decisions, better outcomes, less stress for everyone Step 3: Profit. Elimination. The Plan – Implementation We isolate a county and lock it down for an initial 3 weeks. An Garda man the county borders. They are supported by the army, who provide boots on the ground so that An Garda aren’t stretched. Most routes are closed off so that all essential travel goes through a few well-manned checkpoints. If we do a good job with planning and communication, there won’t be much work to do. We test systemically high-risk households and high-risk individuals early and often i.e. large households and essential workers. With help from local volunteers, medics screen as many people as possible every day. We use multiple measures and repeated applications to improve the quality of our results. We want to identify and remove cases at the earliest possible point, both to reduce the chance of further infection, and to protect the individual’s health. Low risk confirmed cases (young / healthy) go to a safe and comfortable quarantine. Local hotels and guest houses could be used, ideally before we invest in building quarantine facilities. Local taxis, kitted out with extra protective equipment, could take them there. High risk confirmed cases (older / comorbidities) go by ambulance to local medical facilities as required. During this period, we work with local politicians, community leaders, residence associations etc to ensure that everyone is looked after (in reality, these conversations will have started weeks before). We get our neighbourhoods communicating, looking out for each other, making sure they’ve got enough food or heating or whatever else they need. Local volunteers and taxi drivers can do odd jobs like sending packages, collecting prescriptions, lifting heavy stuff, or just checking in on people. If it is feasible, we can even invite local artists to play gigs for people in their streets or apartments. Towards the end of the second week, we begin a mass testing program with the ultimate goal of testing every person in the county (scale depends on resources). Once we have completed the tests and cleared the confirmed cases into quarantine, we can begin a slow, staggered opening process. We must be especially conservative at this point to ensure no slippage. When one county is clear, we move to the next one, and repeat the process. When we have cleared two bordering counties, we can join them together in a bigger Cleared Zone and the process continues from there. Eventually the Cleared Zone covers the whole country, except Dublin (or more realistically, the Pale). What would the other counties do while they wait for their turn? I’m assuming that, they would be doing whatever the ‘Living With The Virus’ plan dictates. This proposal succeeds in line with what happens in the sealed off zones, so I am more concerned with them. However, it would speed up the process if the bordering counties could be encouraged to get a head start. If the plan is going successfully, I’m confident they would. With its population density and its complexity, Dublin / the Pale will be the last county to be cleared. However, given that every other county would be cleared by that point, and with so much effort having been put in, it might make more sense just to burn Dublin down. We could go with a concrete mausoleum as per Chernobyl, but it might be easier and quicker if we just raised the city and started from scratch. The country needs to rebalance, so it’d be two birds with one stone. Or maybe we call that plan B. Dublin’s plan A would follow the same principles as for the rest of the country. Break it into smaller parts, focus resources on one area at a time, use layers of risk measures where precision isn’t an option, and get cases as early as possible, using whatever resources available. By that stage the rest of the country would be clear and the demand for medical resources low. We would have learned a lot along the way, and we would have plenty of ammo to throw at the problem. In general, the more resources we have, the faster we can move. The county by county approach that I have outlined above is too slow. With greater resources, we can increase the number of counties that are being cleared at any one time. One option is to work by province. Another would be to define the zones with respect to observed travel routes, in order to reduce the risk of leakage and reduce the inconvenience on local communities. At the end of the day, lines have to be drawn somewhere, and some people will inevitably lose out. The better we communicate with people in advance, the lower the burden on the people and the more of these problems we can avoid. Following on from that, one of the skills we need to take from this crisis is the ability to isolate and quarantine regions. Whether it is a city, a town, a county, a specific building, or even the entire country, we need to be able to seal it off and control movement in and out. This is an essential tool for outbreak management – whatever the outbreak and whatever the disease. The same goes for individuals. We need to be able to create and operate safe, comfortable, and effective quarantines, and to do so at short notice. It should be a matter of national embarrassment that FG and NPHET couldn’t even organise a quarantine in a pandemic. The whole process might take 3 to 4 months. That means we would have cut off all non-essential air travel for that time, but it doesn’t mean the whole country is in lockdown for 3 or 4 months. The lockdown is staggered, and the individual’s experience will depend on their location and their place in the ‘queue’. The first group of counties to go into lockdown will also be the first to come out. Once they have eliminated the spread of the virus, they will return to a normal, although somewhat isolated, society. The experience steadily improves as more and more counties join them in the Cleared Zone (or steadily deteriorates, depending on your county pride). While the first group is in lockdown, the rest of the country continues as normal i.e. living with the virus. Everyone watches as the first group goes through its lockdown (just think of the #banter). Several weeks later, as the first group is opening up, the second group is preparing to go in to lockdown. As the second group comes out, the third group goes in etc etc and the staggered lockdowns roll like a wave across the country. Every county goes from Living With The Virus -> intelligent lockdown (needs a better name) -> Cleared Zone. The earlier you are in the queue, the less time you spend Living With The Virus and the more time you spend in the Cleared Zone. The individual would only be in a strict lockdown for a matter of weeks, maybe 3-6 depending on the complexity of the region and the resources available. For counties with smaller populations that have shown that they can do a good lockdown, it will be quicker. For Dublin, it will be slower. Strengths I think this proposal has a lot of strengths. It’s a plan, for a start. We haven’t had a plan since this thing began (the FG lockdown wasn’t a plan – it was the inevitable consequence of not having a plan). The leaders take more responsibility to lower the burden on the people, it mobilises idle resources, and it fosters communication and community across the country. These are three strengths that I want to emphasise. 1 It provides clarity This might be the most important point. Uncertainty is painful. Uncertainty is a cost. Even if the bad thing is unlikely to happen, just the fact that it is a risk, or that it could happen means that you live with a cloud over your head. Suffering is bad enough on its own, but suffering for an unknown length of time is torture. And if that period is determined at the whim of a politician or an ‘expert’, that is a recipe for society-wide anger and even civil disorder. With this proposal, we can forecast the length of the period of lockdown with greater accuracy. The people will be able to understand what is being asked of them. We can make plans around resources required versus those available. The economists can make forecasts. Businesses can plan their finances. The people can plan their weddings, book their holidays, get back to training, sign up for courses, and have things to look forward to. At the end of the day, any successful proposal must remove the uncertainty and provide meaningful clarity to households and businesses. 2 Never let a crisis go to waste This plan will require tools and capabilities like rapid local testing, safe quarantines, rapid isolation of towns and regions, emergency decision-making frameworks etc. If we don’t have a capability, then we need to build it. When people say ‘never let a crisis go to waste’ this is what they mean: you build the tools in the crisis that will help you protect yourself from the next one. Nature works the same way. You lift weights until the muscle fibres tear, then they grow back stronger. We build aerobic endurance by pushing ourselves to a limit, then our body naturally reacts to increase the limit. A vaccine works similarly by stimulating antibodies for the disease. Well, we need a civic emergency vaccine for Ireland. These tools are the antibodies that will protect us next time. The sooner we build them, the better. Now is the time, not later. 3 It's the only way we can protect the economy The risk to the economy isn’t the next few months of revenue. We can borrow to cover lost income in the short run. The real risk is a wave of defaults that precipitates a financial crisis. As more individuals and businesses are put under financial pressure, more borrowers will default on their debts. But one man’s debt is another man’s asset, so as the borrowers default, the lender’s financial situation also deteriorates. Defaults are contagious, and if a wave of defaults threatens a major lender, the entire financial system will be at risk. Only an elimination plan can protect the economy. Along with the virus and the uncertainty it creates, we need to eliminate the risk of financial contagion. Weaknesses Could ya be arsed The End Goal Think about what’s on the other side of this… This is a massive challenge – the kind that defines a nation. However you think of your community, this would give you something to be proud of for generations. It would be like Italia ’90, except 10 times bigger, because we would be the players, we would be the ones making it happen. We’d become the first country in Europe to eliminate the virus. And of all the countries in the world, we’d be doing it from the largest deficit too. Those Taiwanese and Kiwis made it easy for themselves with their preparation and their travel restrictions and their competent leaders. Our challenge is much greater than theirs, but they show us what is possible. Have you ever wanted to scoff at the Germans for being disorganised? Wouldn’t you love to have a reason to mock the Danes? Aren’t you sick of hearing about New Zealand? Let’s make the Kiwis sick of hearing about the Irish! If we take this challenge on, the world’s media will be on us. The FT, the Economist, the NYT, the Guardian, Monacle, Wired, the New Scientist, China Daily, RT, Good Housekeeping, Horse and Hound, PornHub… all of these international media empires would be tracking our progress, interviewing key people, reporting daily, willing us on. The world is desperate for good news, and we can be the ones to give it to them. We would become a model for other nations to follow. They would take the Irish model and adapt it to their own situation. Instead of us copying other nations, they would be copying us. Instead of a pat on the head for the diddy little Irish fellas, we would be literally LEADING THE WORLD. Back at home, we get our lives back, and society can breathe again, free of restrictions. The over 70s come out of hibernation. The students go back to university. The protests stop because people go back to work and we announce an inquiry into what exactly happened in February and March. The pubs go back to being pubs. Our hospitality industry is taken off life support. The tidal wave of bankruptcies is avoided. We can play sport and celebrate the wins. We stop talking about things we can or can't do. Just imagine that first session... And imagine how good it would feel knowing that you had worked for it, and knowing that you had set the nation on a better path for generations to come... I think it’s worth a lash! Don’t you?
Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Swaps* (*But Were Afraid To Ask)
Hello, dummies It's your old pal, Fuzzy. As I'm sure you've all noticed, a lot of the stuff that gets posted here is - to put it delicately - fucking ridiculous. More backwards-ass shit gets posted to wallstreetbets than you'd see on a Westboro Baptist community message board. I mean, I had a look at the daily thread yesterday and..... yeesh. I know, I know. We all make like the divine Laura Dern circa 1992 on the daily and stick our hands deep into this steaming heap of shit to find the nuggets of valuable and/or hilarious information within (thanks for reading, BTW). I agree. I love it just the way it is too. That's what makes WSB great. What I'm getting at is that a lot of the stuff that gets posted here - notwithstanding it being funny or interesting - is just... wrong. Like, fucking your cousin wrong. And to be clear, I mean the fucking your *first* cousin kinda wrong, before my Southerners in the back get all het up (simmer down, Billy Ray - I know Mabel's twice removed on your grand-sister's side). Truly, I try to let it slide. Idomybit to try and put you on the right path. Most of the time, I sleep easy no matter how badly I've seen someone explain what a bank liquidity crisis is. But out of all of those tens of thousands of misguided, autistic attempts at understanding the world of high finance, one thing gets so consistently - so *emphatically* - fucked up and misunderstood by you retards that last night I felt obligated at the end of a long work day to pull together this edition of Finance with Fuzzy just for you. It's so serious I'm not even going to make a u/pokimane gag. Have you guessed what it is yet? Here's a clue. It's in the title of the post. That's right, friends. Today in the neighborhood we're going to talk all about hedging in financial markets - spots, swaps, collars, forwards, CDS, synthetic CDOs, all that fun shit. Don't worry; I'm going to explain what all the scary words mean and how they impact your OTM RH positions along the way. We're going to break it down like this. (1) "What's a hedge, Fuzzy?" (2) Common Hedging Strategies and (3) All About ISDAs and Credit Default Swaps. Before we begin. For the nerds and JV traders in the back (and anyone else who needs to hear this up front) - I am simplifying these descriptions for the purposes of this post. I am also obviously not going to try and cover every exotic form of hedge under the sun or give a detailed summation of what caused the financial crisis. If you are interested in something specific ask a question, but don't try and impress me with your Investopedia skills or technical points I didn't cover; I will just be forced to flex my years of IRL experience on you in the comments and you'll look like a big dummy. TL;DR? Fuck you. There is no TL;DR. You've come this far already. What's a few more paragraphs? Put down the Cheetos and try to concentrate for the next 5-7 minutes. You'll learn something, and I promise I'll be gentle. Ready? Let's get started. 1.The Tao of Risk: Hedging as a Way of Life The simplest way to characterize what a hedge 'is' is to imagine every action having a binary outcome. One is bad, one is good. Red lines, green lines; uppie, downie. With me so far? Good. A 'hedge' is simply the employment of a strategy to mitigate the effect of your action having the wrong binary outcome. You wanted X, but you got Z! Frowny face. A hedge strategy introduces a third outcome. If you hedged against the possibility of Z happening, then you can wind up with Y instead. Not as good as X, but not as bad as Z. The technical definition I like to give my idiot juniors is as follows: Utilization of a defensive strategy to mitigate risk, at a fraction of the cost to capital of the risk itself. Congratulations. You just finished Hedging 101. "But Fuzzy, that's easy! I just sold a naked call against my 95% OTM put! I'm adequately hedged!". Spoiler alert: you're not (although good work on executing a collar, which I describe below). What I'm talking about here is what would be referred to as a 'perfect hedge'; a binary outcome where downside is totally mitigated by a risk management strategy. That's not how it works IRL. Pay attention; this is the tricky part. You can't take a single position and conclude that you're adequately hedged because risks are fluid, not static. So you need to constantly adjust your position in order to maximize the value of the hedge and insure your position. You also need to consider exposure to more than one category of risk. There are micro (specific exposure) risks, and macro (trend exposure) risks, and both need to factor into the hedge calculus. That's why, in the real world, the value of hedging depends entirely on the design of the hedging strategy itself. Here, when we say "value" of the hedge, we're not talking about cash money - we're talking about the intrinsic value of the hedge relative to the the risk profile of your underlying exposure. To achieve this, people hedge dynamically. In wallstreetbets terms, this means that as the value of your position changes, you need to change your hedges too. The idea is to efficiently and continuously distribute and rebalance risk across different states and periods, taking value from states in which the marginal cost of the hedge is low and putting it back into states where marginal cost of the hedge is high, until the shadow value of your underlying exposure is equalized across your positions. The punchline, I guess, is that one static position is a hedge in the same way that the finger paintings you make for your wife's boyfriend are art - it's technically correct, but you're only playing yourself by believing it. Anyway. Obviously doing this as a small potatoes trader is hard but it's worth taking into account. Enough basic shit. So how does this work in markets? 2. A Hedging Taxonomy The best place to start here is a practical question. What does a business need to hedge against? Think about the specific risk that an individual business faces. These are legion, so I'm just going to list a few of the key ones that apply to most corporates. (1) You have commodity risk for the shit you buy or the shit you use. (2) You have currency risk for the money you borrow. (3) You have rate risk on the debt you carry. (4) You have offtake risk for the shit you sell. Complicated, right? To help address the many and varied ways that shit can go wrong in a sophisticated market, smart operators like yours truly have devised a whole bundle of different instruments which can help you manage the risk. I might write about some of the more complicated ones in a later post if people are interested (CDO/CLOs, strip/stack hedges and bond swaps with option toggles come to mind) but let's stick to the basics for now. (i) Swaps A swap is one of the most common forms of hedge instrument, and they're used by pretty much everyone that can afford them. The language is complicated but the concept isn't, so pay attention and you'll be fine. This is the most important part of this section so it'll be the longest one. Swaps are derivative contracts with two counterparties (before you ask, you can't trade 'em on an exchange - they're OTC instruments only). They're used to exchange one cash flow for another cash flow of equal expected value; doing this allows you to take speculative positions on certain financial prices or to alter the cash flows of existing assets or liabilities within a business. "Wait, Fuzz; slow down! What do you mean sets of cash flows?". Fear not, little autist. Ol' Fuzz has you covered. The cash flows I'm talking about are referred to in swap-land as 'legs'. One leg is fixed - a set payment that's the same every time it gets paid - and the other is variable - it fluctuates (typically indexed off the price of the underlying risk that you are speculating on / protecting against). You set it up at the start so that they're notionally equal and the two legs net off; so at open, the swap is a zero NPV instrument. Here's where the fun starts. If the price that you based the variable leg of the swap on changes, the value of the swap will shift; the party on the wrong side of the move ponies up via the variable payment. It's a zero sum game. I'll give you an example using the most vanilla swap around; an interest rate trade. Here's how it works. You borrow money from a bank, and they charge you a rate of interest. You lock the rate up front, because you're smart like that. But then - quelle surprise! - the rate gets better after you borrow. Now you're bagholding to the tune of, I don't know, 5 bps. Doesn't sound like much but on a billion dollar loan that's a lot of money (a classic example of the kind of 'small, deep hole' that's terrible for profits). Now, if you had a swap contract on the rate before you entered the trade, you're set; if the rate goes down, you get a payment under the swap. If it goes up, whatever payment you're making to the bank is netted off by the fact that you're borrowing at a sub-market rate. Win-win! Or, at least, Lose Less / Lose Less. That's the name of the game in hedging. There are many different kinds of swaps, some of which are pretty exotic; but they're all different variations on the same theme. If your business has exposure to something which fluctuates in price, you trade swaps to hedge against the fluctuation. The valuation of swaps is also super interesting but I guarantee you that 99% of you won't understand it so I'm not going to try and explain it here although I encourage you to google it if you're interested. Because they're OTC, none of them are filed publicly. Someeeeeetimes you see an ISDA (dsicussed below) but the confirms themselves (the individual swaps) are not filed. You can usually read about the hedging strategy in a 10-K, though. For what it's worth, most modern credit agreements ban speculative hedging. Top tip: This is occasionally something worth checking in credit agreements when you invest in businesses that are debt issuers - being able to do this increases the risk profile significantly and is particularly important in times of economic volatility (ctrl+f "non-speculative" in the credit agreement to be sure). (ii) Forwards A forward is a contract made today for the future delivery of an asset at a pre-agreed price. That's it. "But Fuzzy! That sounds just like a futures contract!". I know. Confusing, right? Just like a futures trade, forwards are generally used in commodity or forex land to protect against price fluctuations. The differences between forwards and futures are small but significant. I'm not going to go into super boring detail because I don't think many of you are commodities traders but it is still an important thing to understand even if you're just an RH jockey, so stick with me. Just like swaps, forwards are OTC contracts - they're not publicly traded. This is distinct from futures, which are traded on exchanges (see The Ballad Of Big Dick Vick for some more color on this). In a forward, no money changes hands until the maturity date of the contract when delivery and receipt are carried out; price and quantity are locked in from day 1. As you now know having read about BDV, futures are marked to market daily, and normally people close them out with synthetic settlement using an inverse position. They're also liquid, and that makes them easier to unwind or close out in case shit goes sideways. People use forwards when they absolutely have to get rid of the thing they made (or take delivery of the thing they need). If you're a miner, or a farmer, you use this shit to make sure that at the end of the production cycle, you can get rid of the shit you made (and you won't get fucked by someone taking cash settlement over delivery). If you're a buyer, you use them to guarantee that you'll get whatever the shit is that you'll need at a price agreed in advance. Because they're OTC, you can also exactly tailor them to the requirements of your particular circumstances. These contracts are incredibly byzantine (and there are even crazier synthetic forwards you can see in money markets for the true degenerate fund managers). In my experience, only Texan oilfield magnates, commodities traders, and the weirdo forex crowd fuck with them. I (i) do not own a 10 gallon hat or a novelty size belt buckle (ii) do not wake up in the middle of the night freaking out about the price of pork fat and (iii) love greenbacks too much to care about other countries' monopoly money, so I don't fuck with them. (iii) Collars No, not the kind your wife is encouraging you to wear try out to 'spice things up' in the bedroom during quarantine. Collars are actually the hedging strategy most applicable to WSB. Collars deal with options! Hooray! To execute a basic collar (also called a wrapper by tea-drinking Brits and people from the Antipodes), you buy an out of the money put while simultaneously writing a covered call on the same equity. The put protects your position against price drops and writing the call produces income that offsets the put premium. Doing this limits your tendies (you can only profit up to the strike price of the call) but also writes down your risk. If you screen large volume trades with a VOL/OI of more than 3 or 4x (and they're not bullshit biotech stocks), you can sometimes see these being constructed in real time as hedge funds protect themselves on their shorts. (3) All About ISDAs, CDS and Synthetic CDOs You may have heard about the mythical ISDA. Much like an indenture (discussed in my post on $F), it's a magic legal machine that lets you build swaps via trade confirms with a willing counterparty. They are very complicated legal documents and you need to be a true expert to fuck with them. Fortunately, I am, so I do. They're made of two parts; a Master (which is a form agreement that's always the same) and a Schedule (which amends the Master to include your specific terms). They are also the engine behind just about every major credit crunch of the last 10+ years. First - a brief explainer. An ISDA is a not in and of itself a hedge - it's an umbrella contract that governs the terms of your swaps, which you use to construct your hedge position. You can trade commodities, forex, rates, whatever, all under the same ISDA. Let me explain. Remember when we talked about swaps? Right. So. You can trade swaps on just about anything. In the late 90s and early 2000s, people had the smart idea of using other people's debt and or credit ratings as the variable leg of swap documentation. These are called credit default swaps. I was actually starting out at a bank during this time and, I gotta tell you, the only thing I can compare people's enthusiasm for this shit to was that moment in your early teens when you discover jerking off. Except, unlike your bathroom bound shame sessions to Mom's Sears catalogue, every single person you know felt that way too; and they're all doing it at once. It was a fiscal circlejerk of epic proportions, and the financial crisis was the inevitable bukkake finish. WSB autism is absolutely no comparison for the enthusiasm people had during this time for lighting each other's money on fire. Here's how it works. You pick a company. Any company. Maybe even your own! And then you write a swap. In the swap, you define "Credit Event" with respect to that company's debt as the variable leg . And you write in... whatever you want. A ratings downgrade, default under the docs, failure to meet a leverage ratio or FCCR for a certain testing period... whatever. Now, this started out as a hedge position, just like we discussed above. The purest of intentions, of course. But then people realized - if bad shit happens, you make money. And banks... don't like calling in loans or forcing bankruptcies. Can you smell what the moral hazard is cooking? Enter synthetic CDOs. CDOs are basically pools of asset backed securities that invest in debt (loans or bonds). They've been around for a minute but they got famous in the 2000s because a shitload of them containing subprime mortgage debt went belly up in 2008. This got a lot of publicity because a lot of sad looking rednecks got foreclosed on and were interviewed on CNBC. "OH!", the people cried. "Look at those big bad bankers buying up subprime loans! They caused this!". Wrong answer, America. The debt wasn't the problem. What a lot of people don't realize is that the real meat of the problem was not in regular way CDOs investing in bundles of shit mortgage debts in synthetic CDOs investing in CDS predicated on that debt. They're synthetic because they don't have a stake in the actual underlying debt; just the instruments riding on the coattails. The reason these are so popular (and remain so) is that smart structured attorneys and bankers like your faithful correspondent realized that an even more profitable and efficient way of building high yield products with limited downside was investing in instruments that profit from failure of debt and in instruments that rely on that debt and then hedging that exposure with other CDS instruments in paired trades, and on and on up the chain. The problem with doing this was that everyone wound up exposed to everybody else's books as a result, and when one went tits up, everybody did. Hence, recession, Basel III, etc. Thanks, Obama. Heavy investment in CDS can also have a warping effect on the price of debt (something else that happened during the pre-financial crisis years and is starting to happen again now). This happens in three different ways. (1) Investors who previously were long on the debt hedge their position by selling CDS protection on the underlying, putting downward pressure on the debt price. (2) Investors who previously shorted the debt switch to buying CDS protection because the relatively illiquid debt (partic. when its a bond) trades at a discount below par compared to the CDS. The resulting reduction in short selling puts upward pressure on the bond price. (3) The delta in price and actual value of the debt tempts some investors to become NBTs (neg basis traders) who long the debt and purchase CDS protection. If traders can't take leverage, nothing happens to the price of the debt. If basis traders can take leverage (which is nearly always the case because they're holding a hedged position), they can push up or depress the debt price, goosing swap premiums etc. Anyway. Enough technical details. I could keep going. This is a fascinating topic that is very poorly understood and explained, mainly because the people that caused it all still work on the street and use the same tactics today (it's also terribly taught at business schools because none of the teachers were actually around to see how this played out live). But it relates to the topic of today's lesson, so I thought I'd include it here. Work depending, I'll be back next week with a covenant breakdown. Most upvoted ticker gets the post. *EDIT 1\* In a total blowout, $PLAY won. So it's D&B time next week. Post will drop Monday at market open.
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Are you interested in earning a consistent income by trading binary,Am a full time binary options trader,i do manage account for individuals/corporate and generate Daily/weekly profit, i can help manage your live trading account to make a formidable profit within a certain period of trade (usually weeks/monthly depending on when you will be making withdrawal ) with the aid of the auxiliary trading system.please let me know if you are interested.thank you
Are you interested in earning a consistent income by trading binary,Am a full time binary options trader,i do manage account for individuals/corporate and generate Daily/weekly profit, i can help manage your live trading account to make a formidable profit within a certain period of trade (usually weeks/monthly depending on when you will be making withdrawal ) with the aid of the auxiliary trading system.please let me know if you are interested.thank you
Hello. There have been both positive and negative comments about IM Academy. Some people believe it's a pyramid scheme while others believe it's the real deal. I'm here to give my thoughts on what I have experienced since joining IM Academy. Since day one, there has been nothing but support and motivation from every individual I have come in contact with. In our group, we have over 2000 members. I am learning A LOT about FOREX, HFX, DCX, how to be an IBO (Independent Business Owner) and more! Do they promote? YES, they do promote the EDUCATION, the SKILL SET, the TRAININGS, the WEBINARS, SUPPORTING not just your team, but others, they promote having a positive MIND SET and reaching out to your MENTORS! They encourage you to inform others of these opportunities in the same way you would inform others of your favorite TV Show, restaurant, sports team, your favorite drink, etc. Do you HAVE to inform others of this life changing skill set that can possibly enhance not only your finances, but your way of life? NO, you do NOT HAVE to say one word about it. The only difference between them encouraging you to tell others about the Academy, the MILLIONAIRE skills you LEARN as you EARN vs. talking about your favorite eatery is that in doing so you have the opportunity to gain residual income. For those who do not know what Residual Income is: simply put, you are able to have an additional stream of income. Who would not want to have an additional stream of income just by simply telling others what you do and they decide to join your team? All you are doing is telling someone about the opportunity to join IM Academy to learn the same skills used by Millionaires! It's up them to decide if they would like to take advantage of the opportunity or not. There are several individuals who are making 6, 7 and even 8 figures by using the skill set and/or telling someone else of this opportunity. Some of these individuals are just like you and me and some are the Educators which we do have over 100 of. They offer LIVE TRAININGS where you can ask them questions right then and there if need be. I have read some comments about how you can find this information on YouTube or other online platforms. Maybe you can, BUT it will NOT be well put together, it may not be as accurate and will you have access to Mentors including Millionaire mentors whenever you need help with something like you do with IM Academy? I've also heard people have said, if you only invest $50 into your account once you get started, it will be gone in no time. More than likely, people who make these comments did NOT attend the trainings and they did NOT use proper risk management. We have SEVERAL trainings through the week and one of the most important training is called the TRADING Plan! This plan teaches you exactly how NOT to over leverage your account. It also teaches you how much to risk for your account size, knowing this will let you know how many trades per a day you can take. If you do exactly what you are taught, your account will not go negative and you would not be posting angry comments about how IM Academy is not what it says it is. Not only do we have trainings by our peers that teach you this, but we also learn this in the Academy Education with the Educators. Simple Run Down: Have you ever opened a Bank Account and they had you filled out all these forms that had a bunch of big fancy terminology on them? Well, that fancy terminology means, you are agreeing to allow the banks to invest YOUR money for you. In turn they give you 1% or LESS within a certain amount of MONTHS or even YEARS! You see, what they are doing is investing YOUR money in the FOREX market. They basically flip YOUR funds into profit within a matter of a few days to a few MINUTES and give you the PENNIES of what they made from YOUR money. Did you know according toglassdoor.com, the national average for a FOREX Trader at a BANK makes around $92,327 a year. To most people that is a LOT of money, but what if I told you they have actually learned a skill that can allow them to make that in a MONTH or LESS? How would YOU like to learn how to do the SAME THING! This is a financially life changing skill that you can learn to possibly have a better life! You Do NOT need to have experience. You DO NOT need to talk to other people to join YOUR team. This is NOT a SCAM, it is not a GET RICH QUICK solution, but you can become wealthy if you learn and put those skills to use. ANYONE can do this! I do NOT care if you did not graduate High School, if you are a Janitorial Custodian, an Exotic Dancer or a Multi-Millionaire who is looking to gain even more income. You are NOT ALONE with IM Academy. WE are in this together! What is FOREX? It is simple the Foreign Exchange Market. It is much bigger than the Stock Market, as FOREX is worldwide and trades over $5 Trillion daily! Yes, you read that right, over $5 TRILLION daily! I think there is enough for you to get a piece of the pie. What is HFX? HFX stands for High Frequency Forex also known as Binary Options. You can buy and sell within a matter of minutes. Which means you can gain profits or lose within 1 to 30 minutes on average. YES, that's right! You do have the possibility of increasing your funds with HFX in as little as 1 minute! BUT, DISCLAIMER: We do NOT recommend you doing this type of trade on your own. With our Academy we have highly skilled Educators who will teach you THEIR technique. Yes, that's right, we have Millionaire Educators who created their own program and will teach you how to use it in order to get significant profits with HFX. What is DCX? DCX is Cryptocurrency, such as your Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, Ripple and more! Remember, the guy who purchased a home with Bitcoin several years ago? Well, today it's becoming a lot more popular. People are able to purchase several types of assets using Cryptocurrency, especially since over 10,000 retailers are now accepting Cryptocurrency as payment. Oh, did I forget to mention The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston is working with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) to develop a "hypothetical" digital currency platform. Now, ask yourself, why would the Federal Reserve Bank "hypothetically" create a digital currency platform? Why would they "hypothetical" spend MILLIONS of dollars in creating a "hypothetical" anything? Bottom line for me is, our world has and is continuing to change. When I was a child, I only saw self driving cars, smart homes, weird types of currencies being used in movies. Look around, what do you see in real life today? I am not trying to convince you to join me and my team so that I can have residual income. I am giving you vital information to possible help secure your future. FOREX is exchanging over $5 Trillion dollars EVERY SINGLE DAY! Me, YOU, YOUR families, YOUR friends have the opportunity to get in NOW on skills that eventually everyone will have to learn at some point in their lives. You might as well do it NOW, go at your own pace, so you do NOT have to rush to figure it out later. I sure hope this answered your questions. If you have more questions or would like to know more information, PLEASE respond to me here or send me an e-mail, [email protected].
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Vertextrades.com Review: 2%-3.5% each working day for 50-75 working days
Vertextrades.com is a high yield investment program which provides long term deposit plans. It started on 26th May 2020. You can get 2%-3.5% each working day for 50–75 working days, this program provides profitable rewards for promoters. I listed it into Standard listing. My first withdrawal request was already processed successfully into my PerfectMoney wallet yesterday. Now let me introduce it to you. Started: 2020–05–26 My Deposit: $200
The amount of 200 USD has been withdrawn from your account. Accounts: U3869878->U21524869. Memo: Shopping Cart Payment. . Date: 13:10 19.06.20. Batch: 319883157.
Invest $30–5000, earn 2% each working day for 75 working days and principal included Invest $5001–10000, earn 2.25% each working day for 70 working days and principal included Invest $10001–20000, earn 2.5% each working day for 65 working days and principal included Invest $20001–100000, earn 3.5% each working day for 50 working days and principal included
These are all the plans Vertextrades.com provides. Since trading takes place only 5 days a week, you will receive return on investment from Monday to Friday. I think the most suitable plan is the first one for all investors, because you only need $30 to start your investment journey. Let me take an example: if you deposit $100, then you can earn 2% daily from Monday to Friday, and you can withdrawal or reinvest the money at any time as your willings. After 75 working days, you will earn $150 totally and initial deposit included. That is to say, your net profit will be $50. Promotional Rewards
Referral Bonus Existing clients can earn referral bonus by introducing new clients. Vertextrades.com pays 10% referral bonus if the person whom you have referred makes a deposit. Referral bonus is paid instantly. Even the accounts that are not having active deposit are eligible to get referral bonus. The referral bonus will be credited directly to the E-wallet upon the completion of the registration and investment process of the members present down the line. Binary Matching Bonus Binary matching bonus will be credited only to the accounts with active deposits. Binary matching income is calculated every 24 hours. Please refer the binary chart for different binary matching slabs.
In binary plan, the new clients are placed below the introducer (referrer) to the left or right side (left or right sub-tree). The tree of a Binary Network Plan will have two legs-left and right; but if a member recruits more than two, then the additional member will be added to the next member down-line. This concept allows the additional member to be shared with down-line member (power leg) and the one who recruited them. This is referred to as spillover. With respect to profit leg, there won’t be a spillover as the profit leg will be expanded with individually sponsored downlines. The binary plan is mostly quantity oriented and not based on the levels. If you register through my personal link, then 10% of your deposit amount will be transferred back to your personal wallet. So don’t forget to submit your RCB request from top menu section on my website, I will transfer the money to you once admin processes my withdrawal request. Payment Options Vertextrades.com accepts PerfectMoney, Payeer, Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, BitcoinCash. Please remember that Bitcoin Payment takes 6 Confirmation in Blockchain. After Bitcoin deposit, it might take anywhere from 1 minute to 3 hours for the funds to be credited in your Vertex Trades account. Withdrawal Type The withdrawal processing time after withdrawal request is 48 hours, and the minimum withdrawal amount is 10 USD. Vertextrades.com charges a total of 10% withdrawal fee while transferring the funds from Vertex Trades E- wallet to your e-currency account. However, no fee is charged for internal transfer, i.e., transfer of funds from one Vertex Trades Account Balance to another Vertex Trades Account Balance, so you can use the internal transfer instead of withdrawal function to save the 10% fee. But remember that only use this function with your trusted friends to keep your money safe. Whois Information
Domain Registration: 2020/01/23–2023/01/23 IP Address: 184.108.40.206–1,541 other sites hosted on this server IP Location: California — Menifee — Sucuri ASN: AS30148 SUCURI-SEC, US (registered Feb 13, 2015)
Summary Vertextrades.com runs its website on an original template, and it now supportes 20 languages. Like most projects, admin also registered a UK company called “VERTEX TRADES LTD”, and you can check its certificate clicking here. From its investment plan, we can know that its profit is not too high, but from its promotional rewards, we can see profitable rewards for promoters. From the picture below, we can see that there is only 8 monitors although it has already operated for 92 days, maybe admin has his own promotional methods. If you have more questions, you can contact admin through its online chat box or the contact info I wrote below. Contact Info
Attention, friends 📢. Here is the long-awaited moment to launch binary options. From this moment on you can start using our product and earn money. Regardless of your ability to guess the market movement you will receive ASLA tokens. Also you can freeze tokens purchased from trading and receive dividends from the income of the binary option. PRODUCTS ASLAgames – play and earn dividends (in development) ASLAtrade – our trading platform is clear even to a beginner Cryptobinary is a relatively new area for investment. The popularity of this tool can be explained as simplicity and accessibility. ASLAtrade has functionality for professionals, and is as simple and intuitive for beginners. All necessary information is presented in the starting page. ASLAtrade is based on blockchain and smart contracts. This is primarily clear trading and unconditional data protection. One of the advantages of binary contracts is simplicity. Just click on the "higher" or "lower" button and wait for the result. The risks are known in advance. The outcome of the bet depends on the correctness of the prediction of price changes for the selected asset. There are two options: the forecast is correct and makes a profit, or it is incorrect and the transaction value goes to a loss. But in any case, you get an ASLA token, which, when frozen, will accrue daily dividends from the platform turnover in TRX tokens and a secondary coin of the ASLAgames platform. ASLAtrade - gives you real confidence in the future. The number of coins is limited. Only one trading pair is currently available. We will add 6 more within a month. Now due to the first launch any defects or failures are possible. Please be understanding and let us know immediately if you find out. Friends the ASLAproject team has taken All user suggestions into account and here is our response!!! Upcoming soon: 1) There will be an increase in the winning percentage by a range of 30-75% 2) The history of all bets will be added in real time 3) A public betting register will be added for full transparency 4) The player rating will be added 5) The payout airdrop will be reduced from 30% to 20% due to the increased win rate 6) The referral program will be integrated , but we need your suggestions on this issue , as you see it Sincerely the ASLAproject team Website - https://aslaproject.com A Russian-speaking channel in the telegram - https://t.me/aslachannel [ENG]English-Speaking chat in telegram - https://t.me/ASLAproject Exchange where the token is traded - https://poloniex.org/exchange
Mirror trading international | Apology: I have undersold the Mirror Trading International opportunity!
Mirror trading international Mirror trading international — Firstly to everyone, a very happy 2020 — may this year be the year where your dreams come true. May you have experiences worthy of any bucket list even though you may not have a bucket list! Mirror trading international — Let me get directly into the article; this morning I received a message from one of the members and she said ‘I misunderstood the opportunity, I read somewhere where they emphasized investing more bitcoins as opposed to recruiting people, that’s why I haven’t done anything.’ If you are in the MTI business and this is your impression then I deeply apologise for this miscommunication. Mirror trading international — I will explain the two parts of the Mirror Trading International Business very carefully: Part One: Investing your Bitcoin with Mirror trading international — The trading takes place and you will receive daily profits from trading. The profits have been consistent and have averaged over 10% monthly since the implementation of the new trading system in August 2019. If you have a reasonably big investment you could live on the interest you earn monthly. Even smaller amounts invested could supplement your existing income. The reality is not all of us have big investments that would enable us to live comfortably from the interest we earn monthly. Therefore Mirror Trading International has a solution for those with an entrepreneurial spirit who wish to be successful and ultimately become financially free. Part Two: Affiliate Program — You still need to be a member with an investment and the suggested investment is around $100 in Bitcoin. This gives you the status of a fully Paid Member and you can refer your friends. This will earn you a 10% Referral Commission which you can either withdraw or use to build up your investment. Once you have personally introduced two people into the business (one in the left team and one on the right) and you have built your investment up to $200 in Bitcoin and maintain this level, you will share in the weekly Binary profit sharing pool. These weekly profits seem small at the start as they could be around $1, but as you grow your affiliate network these weekly profits soon grow and you will find yourself earning $10, $100 and $1000 weekly and more. This is the value of the Affiliate Program within Mirror trading international and I can assure you this can change your life forever. Let me share my experience with you. My personal Story: I joined Mirror trading international in April 2019 about two weeks after it started. My financial situation at the time was as follows… I was unemployed, we were about to be given notice as we could not afford the small place we were renting and my car was about to be repossessed. We had already sold furniture and other items just so we could buy food. Honestly I did not have $10 to start, but I took the risk and managed to accumulate $80 (which was actually money I should have used for rent and food) so that I could start with Mirror trading international. Starting with Mirror trading international at the beginning was not easy, many people did not trust the opportunity and the company had no track record. There was not even a website, the website was only launched in the middle of August 2019. The only way I could earn was by referring people and earning the 10% commission. I did everything I could and developed marketing material to help promote the business. I contacted and personally spoke to more than 500 people about the opportunity, it was tough but I had no option. I made the choice to make Mirror trading international work for me or lose everything. In September the Binary profit sharing started and it supplied another stream of income and the MTI Binary Profit sharing bonus is what I call the 9th Wonder of the World. At the end of November my wife and I moved to Italy and we are now semi-retired thanks to Mirror Trading International. If I have ever given the impression that Mirror trading international is only for investors and if I have not told you about the real opportunity that MTI provides to become financially free just like it has given me, then I truly apologise for not putting more emphasis on the real business vehicle that MTI provides. I wish you every success and I ask that you don’t delay, speak to the person who introduced you so that they can help you get all the necessary information and materials you need in order to build your Mirror Trading International business.
Hello. Are you interested in earning a consistent income by trading binary? Binary option is an online forex trading (stocks, currencies and gold), it's one of the highest paid investment treasury in the world. Here you can make twice your investment, no experience needed. My organization here is a legitimate organization and I myself is an legitimate member as an account manager here that have sworn an oath in the which oath council here in the united state security council to abide by the laws of my organization as a trusted trader account manager that will faithful and honest to investors that one to invest to make profit. BEST BINARY OPTIONS PLATFORM...! Trade with a reliable account manager and twice your capital daily within 6days, with a 20% bonuses on each investment.. 200$ earn 2000$ 300$ earn 3000$ 400$ earn 4000$ 500$ earn 5000$ 600$ earn 6000$ 1000$ earn 10,000$ Within 6days of investment.. No billings, no task. Just invest and watch your profits grow. So you don't have to worry about loss of invested capital okay
Try reopen your dispute with Visa card under condition 13.5
The terms of sale were misrepresented for a transaction involving the following merchant types such as:
Foreclosure Relief Services
Business Opportunities with income possibility
Investment Products when merchant refuses to allow cardholder to withdraw available balance (e.g. binary options)
In the Europe Region Trial Periods/One off purchase where the cardholder was not clearly advised of any further billing
For your convenience, here's a template letter to your bank, feel free to modify and use. Dear Madam or Sir, I would like to provide documents to support the dispute against HashCoins LP(dba Hashflare, Merchant). I purchased a digital service(bitcoin mining) from the Merchant under the agreement of Terms of Service. Invoices are attached. You may find the Terms of Service at the merchant’s official website at https://hashflare.io/terms/.
HashCoins significantly misrepresented the service on their website and in the Terms of Service on the following grounds.
1.1 “Fixed” Fees On its official website www.hashflare.io (see Attached screenshot), above the "Purchase" section, HashCoins promises to charge “FIXED FEES” and “No hidden fees or commissions.” Maintenance fees are listed as “$0.005/ 1 MH/s / 24h” for SCRYPT cloud mining and “$0.0035 / 10 GH/s / 24h” for SHA-256 at the time of my purchase. All fees are shown in USD currency. HashCoins purposely points out that the fee is in “$” and says it’s fixed. In the Terms of Service, Section 11.1 on Page 9, they continue to show the fees are measured in USD (measure in USD / kWh, highlighted and quoted below): F = A * q * S * 720 h, where: A - actual hashrate, measured in H/s; q - power consumption (powehashrate), measured in kW / H/s; S - electricity cost (average for 2 previous months), measure in USD / kWh; 720 h - hours in 1 month (accounted as 30 days). However, they never disclosed that they charge “fees” in BTC (Bitcoin currency) NOT in USD. And since the exchange rate of BTC/USD varies every day, the fees are in fact variable. Without given this information, HashCoins made customers believe that the contract will be profitable for the most of the time using their formula and the profitability will not be affected by the exchange rate. In retrospect, if the maintenance fees were in BTC, their contracts would be extremely unlikely to be profitable and their service is worthless. By contrast, other merchants in the industry all fully disclose how they handle the maintenance fee in details. For instance, Genesis cloud mining, who provides a similar service, informs their customers in their ads that “Please note that the fee is fixed in USD but deducted from the daily mining rewards in BTC. Please refer to the Terms of Service for further details.” (See attachment, Genesis cloud mining’s ad. Can be found on their homepage https://www.genesis-mining.com/pricing). Genesis also explained how the conversion works in their Terms of Service. 1.2 Refuse to allow customers to withdraw available payout On the website, HashCoins highlights that their service allows “INSTANT WITHDRAWAL”(see Attached screenshot), and customers can “Choose the amount to withdraw and receive it instantly”. Now HashCoins does not allow customers to withdraw until their profit (after subtracting maintenance fees) reaches a minimum amount, they also require customers to go through a very tedious verification process before they can withdraw, not to mention this minimum amount is impossible to reach for any ordinary customers. 1.3 Misleading Revenue Forecast To make matters worse, HashCoins displayed a misleading “Revenue Forecast” on user’s dashboard (See attached screenshot, HashCoins Revenue Forecast), in which the revenue doesn’t take into account the maintenance fees, instead they indicated that the revenue is the payout. This makes existing customers continue to believe that their digital mining service is profitable.
HashCoins misrepresented its cancellation policy
Specifically, in Section 5, the cancellation and termination policy specifies that after the mining become unprofitable for 21 consecutive days, HashCoins will and must permanently terminate the contract. As a result, they should return my funds, which was prepaid for 1-year service. Boris, One of HashCoins’ support team members, has confirmed with me the cancellation policy in his email on (Correspondence 1). On July 24, 2018, after 21 consecutive days of being non-profitable, HashCoins sent me an email about the cancellation (Correspondence 2). On July 28, 2018, HashCoins claimed that they would resume the mining service (Correspondence 3) even though mining had not been profitable since then. I have never received payout. HashCoins only uses the “continuation” of service as a way to avoid refund. This is breach of contract. At this moment, I simply demand the merchant HashCoins to follow the Terms of Service, and to cancel and refund my prepaid funds. I have been paying Maintenance fees (See the log HashCoins attached) while they offered the service even though the fees was misrepresented in the advertising and Terms of Service, as explained later. There is no reason for HashCoins to continue withholding my prepaid funds. Quoted from the Terms of Service (a copy is screenshot is attached):
5.1. These Terms of Service are valid indefinitely, even after Account termination. 5.2. The Contract Term for HashFlare.io Cloud Machines is set to 1 year by default, unless stated otherwise. The Contract is valid while profitable (refer to section 5.5.), until expired or until terminated (refer to section 13), whichever comes first. 5.3. Contracts with a stated expiry date will end on the date of expiry and the Cloud Machine is stopped. 5.4. Pre-order Contracts that are not activated immediately on purchase will activate on the stated date. 5.5. The Mining process continues until said mining is profitable. This means the Mining process will stop if the Maintenance and Electricity Fees will become larger than the Payout. If mining remains unprofitable for 21 consecutive days the Service is permanently terminated (Hashrate type specific). During the consecutive 21 day period, Payouts and Fees will also be temporarily stopped. If during the suspension period, the Contract-related mining factors (such as the exchange rate and mining difficulty) that are outside of HashFlare’s control will change favorably, making mining profitable again, the Service will be unsuspended and contracts reactivated. 5.6. HashFlare reserves the right to change the launch date, Contract Term of any Contract.
In sum, HashCoins misrepresented the service and income possibility to customers meanwhile they failed to act in accordance with their terms of service customers agreed on. I find this merchant lacks integrity. I am not surprised to see many people complaining and filing chargebacks against them. You may find testimonies on Twitter, Google, Reddit oand other social media. I hope the chargeback can be resolved in my favor. Thanks again for your support!
05-20 11:23 - 'Bitcoin trading' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/Kendrick_orbitcoin removed from /r/Bitcoin within 53-63min
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In addressing shortcomings of a major web browser recently, I tossed out a neologism for a neologistic age: Minimum viable user. This describes the lowest-skilled user a product might feasibly accommodate, or if you're business-minded, profitably accommodate. The hazard being that such an MVU then drags down the experience for others, and in particular expert or experienced users. More to follow. There are cases where reasonable accommodations should be considered, absolutely. Though how this ought be done is also critical. And arbitrary exclusions for nonfunctional reasons -- the term for that is "discrimination", should you ask -- are right out. Accessibility accommodations, in physical space and informational systems, is a key concern. I don't generally require these myself, but know many people who do, and have come to appreciate their concerns. I've also come to see both the increased imposition, and benefits, this offers by way of accommodating the needs. It's often underappreciated how increased accessibility helps many, often all, users of a product or space. A classic instance would be pavement (or sidewalk) kerb cuts -- bringing the edge of a walkway to street level, rather than leaving a 10 cm ridge. This accommodates not just wheelchairs, but dollies, carts, wheeled luggage, and more. Benefits which materialised only after deployment, beyond the original intent.
Accessibility and Information Systems
For information systems -- say, webpages -- the accommodations which are most useful for perceptually-challenged users are also almost always beneficial to others: clear, high-contrast layouts. Lack of distracting screen elements. A highly semantic structure makes work easier for both screen-readers (text-to-speech) and automated parsing or classification of content. Clear typography doesn't fix all copy, but it makes bad copy all the more apparent. Again, positive externalities. When we get to the point of process-oriented systems, the picture blurs. The fundamental problem is that an interface which doesn't match the complexity of the underlying task is always going to be unsatisfactory. Larry Wall has observed this with regard to the Perl programming language: complexity will out. In landscape design, the problem is evidenced by the term "desire path". A disagreement between use and design. At its heart, a desire path is the failure for designer to correctly anticipate, or facilitate, the needs and desires of their users. Such paths reflect emergent practices or patterns, some constructive, some challenging the integrity of a system. Mastodon Tootstorms are an example of a positive creative accommodation. Mostly. On other services, the lack of an ability to otherwise dismiss content frequently creates an overload of the spam or abuse reporting mechanism. G+ comes to mind. If a side-effect of reporting content is that it is removed from my view, and there is no other way to accomplish that goal, then the reporting feature becomes the "remove from visibility" function. I've ... had that conversation with Google for a number of years. Or is that a monologue... Software programming is in many ways a story of side-effects and desire paths, as is the art of crafting system exploits. PHP seems particularly prone to this, though I can't find the character-generating hack I've in mind. There's the question of when a system should or shouldn't be particularly complex. Light switches and water taps are a case in point. The first has operated as a simple binary, the second as a variable-rate flow control, and the basic functionality has remained essentially unchanged for a century or more. Until the Internet of Broken Shit that Spies on you wizkids got ahold of them.... And modulo some simple management interfaces: timers or centralised large-building controls. Simple tasks benefit from simple controls. Complex tasks ... also benefit from simple controls, but no simpler than the task at hand. A good chef, for example, needs only a modicum of basic elements. A good knife. A reliable cooktop and oven. A sink. A cutting surface. Mixing bowls. Underappreciated: measuring equipment. Measuring spoons, cups, pitchers. A scale. Thermometer. Timers. The chef also may have call for some specific processing equipment: cutting, chopping, blending, grating, and mixing tools. Powering these increases throughput, but the essential controls remain simple. And some specialised tools, say, a frosting tube, but which generally share common characteristics: they're individually simple, do one thing, usually a basic transformation, and do it well. The complexity of the process is in the chef, training, and practice. The antithesis of this is "cooking gadgets" -- tools or appliances which are complicated, fussy, achieve a single and non-general result, or which integrate (or attempt to do so) a full process. This is the stuff that clutters counter space and drawers: useless kitchen gadgets. A category so egregious it defies even simple listing, though you're welcome to dig through search results. If you can only use it on one recipe, it's bad mkay?
Appropriateness of Single-use Tools: Safety equipment
On single-use tools: if that single use is saving your life in conditions of readily forseeable peril, then it may well be worth having. Lifeboats. Seatbelts. First aid kit. That gets down to a risk assessment and mitigation calculation problem though, which may be error-prone: over- and under-estimating risks, and/or the efficacy of mitigations. Pricing risk and risk-as-economic good is another long topic.
Lifts, Telephones, and Automobiles
There are times when you absolutely should be aiming for the minimum viable user. Anything that sees widespread shared public use, for example. I shouldn't have to read the user manual to figure out how to open the front door to your building. Automatic, sensored doors, would be an entirely MVU product. I've mentioned lifts, automobiles, and telephones. Each is highly complex conceptually, two can maim or kill. All can be relatively safely used by most adults, even children. A large part of what makes lifts, automobiles, and telephones so generally usable is that the controls are very highly standardised. Mostly. The exceptions become newsworthy. Telephones have deviated from this with expansion of mobile and even more complex landline devices. And the specific case of business-oriented office telephones has been for at least 30 years, a strong counterexample, worth considering.
Office Phone Systems
It takes me a year or more to figure out a new office phone system. If ever. A constant for 30 years. This wasn't the case as of the 1980s, when a standard POTS-based phone might have five buttons, and the smarts were in a PBX generally located within the building. By the 1990s, though, "smart phones" were starting to appear. Rolm was one early vendor I recall. These had an increasing mix of features, not standardised either across or within vendor lines, but generally some mix of:
Lots of other random shit to inflate marketing brochures
Feature #4 was a major problem, but the underlying one was, and remains, I think, the mismatch of comms channels and cognitive capacities a phone represents: audio, physical, textual, and short-term working memory. The physical interface of most phones -- and I'm referring to desk sets here -- is highly constrained. There's a keypad, generally 12 buttons (not even enough for the impoverished Roman alphabet, let alone more robust ones), possibly an additional set of function buttons, and a handset, plus some base. Cords. More advanced phonesets have perfected the technology of including a display for text which is simultaneously unreadable under any lighting conditions, viewing angles, or capable of providing useful information in any regard. This another engineering accomplishment with a decades-long record. Phones are relatively good for talking, but they are miserable for communication. Reflected by millennials disdain for making phone calls Millennials prefer text-based apps to voice comms, as do numerous tech early-adopters. I suspect the reason is both the state-maintenance and fragility of phone-based communications. I'm distinguishing talking -- a longer and wandering conversation with a friend -- and communicating -- the attempt to convey or obtain some specific task-oriented or process-oriented information. The salient difference is that the latter is very strongly goal oriented, the former, not so much. That is, a "simple" phone conversation is a complex interaction and translation between visual, textual, audio, physical, and memory systems. It's also conducted without the visual cues of face-to-face communications (as are all remote comms), for further fun and games. This usually makes conversations with someone you know well (for whom you can impute those cues) generally far more straightforward than with a stranger, especially for complex discussions. The upshot is that while a telephone is reasonably simple to use in the basic case -- establish a voice connection with another device generally associated with a person or business -- it actually fails fairly profoundly in the surrounding task context for numerous reasons. Many of which boil down to an interface which is simultaneously oversimplified and poorly suited to the task at hand. Smartphones, and software-based telephony systems in general, followed the business phone lead. Mobile comms generally have expanded on failures of business phone systems in poor usability as phones by significantly deteriorating audio quality and dynamics -- constraints of packet-switching, compression, additional relay hops, and speed-of-light delays have boosted noise and lag to the level of interfering with the general flow of conversation. Which isn't particularly an interface failure as such (this is channel behaviour), but it encourages the shift to text of millennials. I'll save the question of how to fix voice comms for discussion. The point I'm making is that even an apparently straightforward device and task, with a long engineering history, can find itself ill-matched to new circumstances. There's also much path-dependence here. Lauren Weinstein on G+ enjoys digging up old AT&T engineering and marketing and/or propaganda newsreels describing development of the phone system: direct-dial, switching, 7-digit, area-code, long-distance, touch-tone. There were real and legitimate design, engineering, and use considerations put into each of these. It's not as if the systems were haphazardly put together. This still doesn't avoid the net result being a bit of a hash. An appreciation of why Mr. Chesterton built his fence , and whether or not that rationale remains valid, is useful to keep in mind. As are path-dependencies, 2nd-system effects, and late-adopter advantages. Those building out interdependent networks after initial trial often have a significant advantage. It's also interesting to consider what the operating environment of earlier phones was -- because it exceeded the device itself. A business-use phone of, say, the 1970s, existed in a loosely-integrated environment comprising:
The phone itself
The local PBX -- the business's dedicated internal phone switch.
A secretary or switchboard operator, serving also as a message-taking (voice-to-text), screening, redirect, directory, interactive voice response, and/or calendaring service
A desk calendar
A phone book
A diary or organiser
Critically: these components operated simultaneously and independently of the phone. A modern business, software, or smartphone system may offer some, or even all, of these functions, but frequently:
They aren't available whilst a call is in process
They have vastly less capability or flexibility than the systems they replaced
The benefits are that they are generally cheaper, smaller, more portable, and create digital data which may be, if accessible to other tools, more flexible. But enough of phones.
The Unix Philosophy
The Unix Philosophy reads: "Write programs that do one thing and do it well. Write programs to work together. Write programs to handle text streams, because that is a universal interface." It offers a tremendous amount of mileage.
Exceptions to the Unix Philosophy: Complexity Hubs
I want to talk about the apparent exceptions to the Unix philosophy: shells, editors, email, init (and especially systemd), remote filesystems, udev, firewall rules, security generally, programming languages, GUIs. Apparently, "exceptions to the Unix philosophy" is very nearly another neologism -- I find a single result in Google, to an essay by Michael O. Church. He adds two more items: IDEs (integrated developer environments), arguably an outgrowth of editors, and databases. Both are solid calls, and both tie directly into the theme I had in mind in the preceding toot. These are all complexity hubs -- they are loci of either control or interfacing between and among other systems or complex domains:
Shells, editors, IDEs, and programming languages are all interfaces through which a skilled user interacts with a highly complex system. Whilst remaining in the context of text, this is a space in which new capabilities are themselves created or synthesised.
Databases ... try to make sense of the world, under constraints of scale, consistency, performance, reliability, stability, integrity, and durability.
Email faces a vast array of complexities: standards, remote systems and operators, file formats, spam, security, identity, DNS, filtering. And that's just on the technical side. Within the communications context there are composing standards, workflows, language, characterset, prioritisation, archival, deletion, and more. Email is, in a word, a hairball. It wants an Alexander.
To a rough approximation, remote filesystems combine many of the technical complexities of both databases and email: sorting out who and what to access, via what standards, in a distributed context. None of the widely-used technologies is particularly satisfactory, and none of the satisfactory systems are widely used. It's a CRUDdy situation.
Linux's udev is at its essence the problem of remote filesystems made local -- the idea that devices directly attached (or made to appear to be directly attached) to a system might go walkabout or show up unexpectedly for dinner. It is "responsible for providing an abstract interface of the hardware", which tells us what we need to know: When "abstraction" appears in docs, it's a warning that Here Be Dragons. Simplicity doesn't need abstraction.
Firewall rules and security generally are attempted as defences against the unexpected. Worse, they're very frequently contingent defences, which is to say, when you need a defence, you need it now. As in military contexts, your basic tools are limited: speed and agility, if you can get out of the way, shielding or armour, if you cannot, countermeasures, if possible. Given a comms context, rules of epidemiology also apply: guard your portals, or ports, with effective friend-or-foe. Since attacks, particularly effective ones, are frequently unexpected, security is inherently a choatic space, and reflects it. It is highly resistant to attempts at organisation, though the focus on mechanisms, above, may help.
The GUI Mess
This leaves us with GUIs, or more generally, the concept of the domain of graphics. The complexity here is that graphics are not text. Or at the very least, transcend text. It is possible to use text to describe graphics, and there are tools which do this: Turtle. Some CAD systems. Scalable vector graphics (SVG). But to get philosophical: the description is not the thing. The end result is visual, and whilst it might be rule-derived, it transcends the rule itself. One argument is that when you leave the domain of text, you leave the Unix philosophy behind. I think I'm OK with that as a starting premise. This means that visual, audio, mechanical, and other sensory outputs are fundamentally different from text, and that we need to keep in mind that text, whilst powerful, has its limits. It's also to keep in mind, though, what the characteristics and limits of GUIs themselves are. Neal Stephenson, "In the Beginning was the Command Line", again, offers one such: Metaphor sheer. Most especially where a GUI is used to represent computer system elements themselves, it's crucial to realise that the representation is not the thing itself -- map-territory confusion. In fact a GUI isn't so much a representation as a remapping of computer state. Unix, the C programming language, and the bash shell all remain relatively close to machine state. In many cases, the basic Unix commands are wrappers around either C language structures (e.g., printf(1) and printf(3)), or report the content of basic data structures (e.g., stat(1) and stat(2)). Even where the concept is reshaped significantly, you can still generally find the underlying concept present. This may be more foreign for newbies, but as exposure to the system is gained, interface knowledge leverages to system knowledge. GUIs lose this: represented state has little coherence. Some argue that not being tied to the mechanism is an advantage -- that this allows the interface designer a freedom to explore expressions independent of the underlying mechanism. This is true. But it gets to another set of limitations of GUIs:
There is a limit to how much information can be represented graphically, imposed by display, resolution, dot pitch, scrolling, seeking, and time.
Users hate change.
GUI efficiency is intrinsically limited.
GUI doesn't script. Not easily. And most definitely not within the metaphor of basic GUI use, which is how CLI scripts.
Scripting has the effect of constraining, for better or worse, changes to interfaces because scripts have to be updated as features change. The consequence is that tools either don't change arguments, change them with exceedingly long advance warning, or failing either of those, are rapidly discarded by those who use them due to gratuitous interface changes. The result is a strong, occasionally stifling, consistency over time. The limits on information density and on scaling or scrolling are another factor. A good GUI might offer the ability to expand or compress a view by a few times, but it takes a very creative approach to convey the orders of magnitude scales which, say, a physical library does. Data visualisation is its own specialty, and some are good at it. The result is that most GUI interfaces are good for a dozen, perhaps a few dozens, objects. Exceptions to this are telling. xkcd is on the money: https://www.xkcd.com/980/ This chart manages to show values from $1to $2.39 quadrillion ($2.39 thousand million million), within the same visualisation, a span of 15 orders of magnitude, by using a form of logarithmic scaling. This is possible, but it is difficult to do usefully or elegantly.
GUIs, Efficiency, and Change
Change aversion and inherent limits to GUI productivity interact to create the final conflict for GUIs: the potential for interface efficiency is limited and change is disruptive, you lose for trying. Jamie "jwz" Zawinski notes this:
Look, in the case of all other software, I believe strongly in "release early, release often". Hell, I damned near invented it. But I think history has proven that UI is different than software.
What jwz doesn't do is explain why this is, and I'm not aware of others who have. This also shows up in the case of Apple, a company which puts a premium on design and UI, but which is exceedingly conservative in changing UI. The original Mac desktop stuck with its initial motif from 1984 until 2001: 17 years. It successor has changed only incrementally from 2001 to 2017, very nearly as long. Even Apple realise: you don't fuck with the GUI. This suggests an underlying failure of the Linux desktop effort isn't a failure to innovate, but rather far too much churn in the desktop. My daily driver for 20 years has been Window Maker, itself a reimplementation of the 1989 NeXT desktop. Which is to say that a 30 year-old design works admirably. It's fast, stable, doesn't change unexpectedly with new releases or updates, and gets the fuck out of the way. It has a few customisations which tend to focus on function rather than form.
The Minimum Viable User GUI and Its Costs
Back to my starting premise: let's assume, with good reason, that the Minimum Viable User wants and needs a simple, largely pushbutton, heavily GUI, systems interface. What does this cost us? The answer is in the list of Unix Philosophy Violating Tasks:
Dealing with scale
Dealing with complexity
Iteratively building out tools and systems
Adapting to changing circumstance
Scalability of understanding, comprehension, or control
Integrating numerous other systems
Especially nonuniform ones
Just Who is the Minimum Viable User?
A central question, and somewhat inexcusably buried at this point in my essay, is who is the Minimum Viable User? This could be the lowest level of system skills capable of using a device, which an OECD survey finds is abysmally bad. Over half the population, and over 2/3 in most surveyed industrialised countries, have poor, "below poor", or no computer skills at all. I'm moving past this point quickly, but recommend very strongly reading Jacob Nielsen's commentary on this study, and the study itself: "Skills Matter: Further Results from the Survey of Adult Skills" (OECD, 2016). The state of typical user skills is exceedingly poor. If you're reading this essay, you're quite likely not among them, though if you are, the comment is simply meant without disparagement as a statement of fact: from high to low, the range of user computer skills is enormous, with the low end of the range very highly represented in the general population. People who, largely, otherwise function quite well in society: they have jobs, responsibilities, families. This has profound implications for futures premised on any sort of general technical literacy. As William Ophuls writes in Plato's Revenge, social systems based on the premise that all the children are above average are doomed to failure. The main thrust of this essay though is a different concern. Global information systems which are premised on a minimal-or-worse level of sophistication by all users also bodes poorly, though for different reasons: it hampers the capabilities of that small fraction -- 5-8% or less, and yes, quite probably far less -- of the population who can make highly productive use of such tools, by producing hardware and software which fails to support advanced usage. It does this by two general modes:
It simply lacks the necessary features. I could point to the entirely crippled commandline userland of a typical Android device.
It actively prevents advanced users from making full use of their devices by restricting access and enhancement. This might be seen as a patronising or Big Brotherish move by vendors, and there's certainly concern over this. But it's also a realistic response to the security and threat landscape of mobile devices operate in, given typical user skill levels. A fact hammered home by the fact that skilled users frequently fail to manage their systems securely.
The dynamics are also driven by market and business considerations -- where the money is, and how development, shipping, and maintaining devices relates to cash flows.
The Problem-Problem Problem
One business response is to extend the MVU definition to that of the Minimum Viable-Revenue User: services are targeted at those with the discretionary income, or lack of alternatives, to prove attractive to vendors. There's been well-founded criticism of Silicon Valley startups which have lost track of what a meaningful problem in need of solution. It's a problem problem. Or: The problem-problem problem. Solving Minor Irritations of Rich People, or better, inventing MIoRP, as a bootstrapping method, has some arguable utility. Telsa Motors created a fun, but Very ExpensiveTM , electrified Lotus on its way to creating a viable, practical, battery-powered, Everyman vehicle. Elon Musk is a man who has made me a liar multiple times, by doing what I unequivocally stated was impossible, and he impresses the hell out of me for it. Amazon reinvented Sears, Roebuck, & Co. for the 21st century bootstrapped off a books-by-mail business. I'm not saying there ain't a there there. But I'm extremely unconvinced that all the there there that's claimed to be there is really there. Swapping out the phone or fax in a laundry, food-delivery, dog-walking, or house-cleaning business is not, in the larger scheme of things, particularly disruptive. It's often not even a particularly good business when catering to the Rich and Foolish. Not that parting same from their easily-won dollars isn't perhaps a laudable venture. The other slant of the Minimum Viable User is the one who is pushed so far up against the wall, or fenced in and the competition fenced out, that they've no option but to use your service. Until such time as you decide to drag them off the plane. Captive-market vendor-customer relationship dynamics are typically poor. For numerous reasons, the design considerations which go into such tools are also rarely generative. Oh: Advertising is one of those domains. Remember: Advertising breeds contempt. Each of these MVU business cases argues against designing for the generative user. A rather common failing of market-based capitalism. Robert Nozick explains criticism of same by creatives by the fact that "by and large, a capitalist society does not honor its intellectuals". A curious argument whose counterpoint is "capitalism is favoured by those whom it does unduly reward". That's solipsistic. Pointing this out is useful on a number of counts. It provides a ready response to the Bullshit Argument that "the market decides". Because what becomes clear is that market forces alone are not going to do much to encourage generative-use designs. Particularly not in a world of zero-marginal-cost products. That is: products whose marginal costs are small (and hence: pricing leverage), but with high fixed costs. And that means that the market is going to deliver a bunch of shitty tools.
Getting from Zero to One for Generative Mobile Platforms
Which suggests one of a few possible avenues out of the dilemma: a large set of generative tools have been built through non-capitalistic organisation. The Free Software / Open Source world would be a prime case in point, but it's hardly the first. Scientific research and collaboration, assembly of reference tools, dictionaries, encyclopedias. That's an option. Though they need some sort of base around which to form and organise. And in the case of software they need hardware. For all the evil Bill Gates unleashed upon the tech world (a fair bit of it related to the MVU and MFVU concepts themselves), he also unleashed a world of i386 chipset systems on which other software systems could be developed. Saw to it that he individually and specifically profited from every one sold, mind. But he wasn't able to restrict what ran on those boxes post-delivery. GNU/Linux may well have needed Bill Gates. (And Gates may well have not been able to avoided creating Linux.) There are more smartphones and Android devices today than there ever were PCs, but one area of technical advance over the decades has been in locking systems down. Hard. And, well, that's a problem. I don't think it's the only one, though. Commodity x86 hardware had a model for the operating system capable of utilising it which already existed: Unix. Linus Torvalds may have created Linux, but he didn't design it as such. That template had been cut already. It was a one-to-two problem, a question of scaling out. Which is to say it wasn't a Zero to One problem. And yes, Peter Thiel is an evil asshat, which is why I'm pointing you specifically at where to steal his book. That's not to say he isn't an evil asshat without the occasional good idea. I'm not sure that finding (and building) the Open Mobile Device Environment is a Zero to One problem -- Google, well, Android Inc., leveraged Linux, after all. But the design constraints are significantly different. A standalone PC workstation is much closer to a multi-user Unix server in most regards, and particularly regards UI/UX, than is a mobile device measuring 25, or 20, or 12, or 8 cm. Or without any keyboard. Or screen. And a certain set of tools and utilities must be created. It's not as if attempts haven't been made, but they simply keep not getting anywhere. Maemo. FirefoxOS. Ubuntu Phone. Hell, the Psion and Palm devices weren't bad for what they did. Pick one, guys & gals. Please.
The Mobile Applications Ecosystem is Broken
There's also the question of apps, and app space, itself. By one school of thought, a large count of available applications is a good thing. By another, it's a sign of failure of convergence. As of 2017, there are 2.5 million Google Play apps. Is it even worth the search time? Is meaningful search of the space even possible? The question occurs: is it really in Google's interest to proliferate applications which are separate, non-integrated, split development efforts, and often simply perform tasks poorly? Why not find a way to focus that development effort to producing some truly, insanely, great apps? The consequences are strongly reminiscent of the spyware and adware problem of desktop Windows in the early 2000s. For the same reason: competitive software development incentivises bad behaviour and poor functionality. It's the Barbarians at the Gate all over again. With so many independent development efforts, and such an inefficient communications channel to potential users, as well as poor revenue potential through kosher methods, the system is inherently incentivised to exceedingly user-hostile behaviour. A valid counterargument would be to point to a set of readily-found, excellent, well-designed, well-behaved, user-centric tools fulfilling fundamental uses mentioned in my G+ post. But this isn't the case.Google's Play Store is an abject failure from a user perspective. And catering to the MVU carries a large share of the blame. I'm not saying there should be only one of any given application either -- some choice is of value. Most Linux distributions will in fact offer a number of options for given functionality, both as shell or programming tools (where modular design frequently makes these drop-in replacements, down to syntax), and as GUI tools. Whilst "freedom to fork" is a touted advantage of free software, "capacity to merge" is even more salient. Different design paths may be taken, then rejoined. There's another line of argument about web-based interfaces. I'll skip much of that noting that the issues parallel much of the current discussion. And that the ability to use alternate app interfaces or browser site extensions is critical. Reddit and Reddit User Suite, by Andy Tuba, are prime exemplars of excellence in this regard.
Google VP Prabhakar Raghava said in a recent interview that the very existence of Windows 10 S is “a validation of the approach we've taken.” Raghava went on to add, “What educational institutions have demanded is simplicity. It's a real test tube for all of us, whether it's Microsoft or any of us.”... [It] is only able to install and run Universal Windows Platform (UWP) apps that are found within the Windows Store. Microsoft has locked things down so tightly that Win32 apps won’t even install....
Yes, this is a lot of words to describe the concept generally cast as "the lowest common denominator". I'm not claiming conceptual originality, but terminological originality. Additionally:
"Lowest common denominator" is technically inaccurate. It's greatest common denominator, but that creates a confusion as to whether what's being discussed is a high goal to be attained or a low limit which is imposed. (The LCD of any two integers is 1.)
"Minimum viable user" plays off "minimum viable product", popular extant Silicon Valley terminology. And is technically accurate.
HIGH REWARD COIN Investment instrument based on new generation blockchain INTRODUCTION Our crew has created a neural network capable of learning based on the knowledge and experience of professional traders. OBJECTIVE High Reward Coin’s objective is to offer a wide circle of people an opportunity to gain high rewards by making use of our rich experience and advanced tools that include machine learning and blockchain technologies. SOLUTION Our bots are continuously improved and avoid numerous tiny errors typical for human actor during the trading on global exchanges. The humans are subject to emotions, moods and other external factors. Our companies’ trading bots are exempt from any such risks and therefore we can guarantee maximum gains. We invest significant resources into the development of neural network in order that our bots would be able to expand the spectrum of traded instruments and work with wider scope of exchanges and financial products. WHAT IS HIGH REWARD COIN ABOUT US HighRewardCoin is a monetary system built on the Ethereum platform combining all the best properties of this platform. Simplified transfers Convenient remittance of assets Fast immediate P2P transactions The total amount of tokens is restricted HighRewardCoin is absolutely free from governmental or banking management The blockchain ledger insures your funds from hackers, scammers, and brute force. SPECIFICATION Coin Name: High Reward Coin Symbol: HRC Platform: Ethereum Total Supply: 12.000.000 HRC Total Sale For ICO: 9.240.000 HRC Total Refferal and Bounty: 10% of seling HRC Token Sale Price: 0.8$-1,75$ = 1 HRC Price After ICO: 15$ Token Sale will be open from 20.01.2018-20.02.2018 Soft cap: 1.000.000$ Hard cap: 12.730.000$ (The amount can be lowered) 5a68d279e079b_percents-2(1).png.6d397cb3dcf83a97cbf557fc74ded185.png WALLET HighRewardCoin trading token system will include a wallet where the users can keep, track and handle their personal HRC funds. Its interface will provide you with convenient and automated tools for browsing your token purchases and investments backlog as well as current assets. (See also ICO information on our site). The wallet is designed to be used in the token sale and an ensuing active HRC space. It is based on Ethereum’s strategic ERC20 protocol and is assumed to be used for storing HRC tokens exclusively. BEST WALLET FOR HRC MyEtherWallet (no download needed) MetaMask (Firefox and Chrome browser addon) Mist (Desktop) Parity (Desktop) imToken (iPhone) imToken (Android) Our HRC wallet is currently under development and will be presented shortly so that you will able to store your tokens in the wallet based on our proprietary platform. TYPE TOKEN TYPE TOKEN ($ HRC) HighRewardCoin has developed the tokens that comply with ERC20 standard rooted in Ethereum ledger and allowing efficient implementation of HRC tokens. ERC20 is a reference protocol that ensures the compatibility of coins, which contributes to the viability of HRC cryptospace. This means all ERC20 based coins are a variety of Ethereum tokens adhering to strictly defined standards. The complete compliance with ERC20 requires for the developer to integrate certain series of commands into their smart contract enabling them, in case of proper implementation, to have an access to the following functionality :
Generate the total reserves of coins
Calculate the balance of the wallet
Remit the tokens
Confirm the transfer of coins
ERC20 ensures smooth intercommunication with outside smart contracts and dAPPs in Ethereum ecosystem. The coins that feature only part of standard functionality are viewed as no fully compliant with ERC20. PURPOSE OF TOKENS HighRewardCoin (HRC) is a digital token designed for purchasing investment products on HighRewardCoin platform. The platform will accept HRC tokens exclusively, which, after ICO, will only be available for buying at coin exchanges. After the launch of lending system, the platform will have an internal exchange for users’ convenience. Why HRC will grow. We have one of the most appealing lending programs, and many people will want to participate in it, driving the HRC price higher. Our experts predict a 10x-14x rise during the first 3-4 months after the appearance of HRC on exchanges. The company will also direct part of its income to repurchase HRC off the exchanges, thus reducing their amount in circulation and driving the price upwards. MARKETS After the end of ICO our token will appear on the following exchanges yobit.png.42dcf4c924033e900b12670ca0b50e1d.png etherdelta.png.d69f2c9ed2167c0f746ae13da2194e48.png coinexchange.png.3f04b950b647bdca01ae34d7500bafb0.png gate.png.29396bc75bae0ef92bd99d86357fc49b.png bluetrade.png.ec51cec1d27100230d3cfb922f3cef33.png tradesatoshi.png.16a78a2dd3bdd16f039d84b58f459c1e.png STANDARD LENDING SYSTEM HighRewardCoin has developed a progressive and innovative credit system highly superior to those of the competitors, since our objective is to integrate several marketplaces of digital finances. We have refrained from daily payouts due to recognizing the increased risks of lowered interests for investors’ community. Instead, we have projected the plan that presupposes the payments in specific periods with increased interests depending on the deposit amount and chosen duration. Such an approach secures the proficiency of investing in ICO sales, mid- and long-term trading or our operations with binary options. HighRewardCoin platform ensures the proper workings of our ecosystem, demonstrating transparency and safety of our transactions, because our primary task is to protect the finances of our customers and affiliates shaping our growing social system. Screenshot_269.png.ed31b9445219ef07b53edabaf18ea39c.png FAST LENDING PROFITS PROGRAM This system is designed for those customers who prefer to get their returns as fast as possible. For them our team has created a special product, short-term, but, respectively, less profitable. But it will also find its customers since the investors’ capital is protected as reliably as in the standard lending program. This plan is setup for those investors who desire to profit in the fastest available way. For these folks our experts have developed a unique option with short term of running, though, of course, with lower yields. Nevertheless, this option will definitely appeal to some of our clientele as your investments here are safeguarded with the same trustworthy mechanisms as in the normal lending version. Screenshot_270.png.4df881f7c35cbd2ba1b4d3483a25ceb8.png PLATFORMS The HighRewardCoin platform will become accessible to our subscribers upon the scheduled start of ICO sale. The platform will provide our users with original and customizable account page with the tools for participating in ICO, utilizing digital wallet, joining affiliate and lending programs. Keep track of the ICO schedule and sign up to draw maximum advantage off our platform and testify to the efficiency and usability of provided tools, settings and options. At the moment we have a platform ready for PC and mobile device web browsers and are planning the launch of mobile apps for most popular systems that will be available in Apple Store and Google Play. However, before we announce the launch of the applications, beware of fraudulent ones that may appear in these stores. INITIAL OFFER OF CURRENCY (ICO) Our intelligent contract enables us to issue only 9,240,000 token for ICO sale, and 10% of the sold tokens amount is reserved for referral payments and bounty rewards. Before the launch of ICO the link to intelligent contract will be available on our website, and each investor can verify it and assure themselves that all their interests are duly protected. PRICING STRUCTURE The HighRewardCoin homepage will feature the level or degree based system of sales. This way the earliest investors will get the most profitable and attractive price, and then the price will be increasing. Screenshot_271.png.08805e367f105a303384f912444c7f3a.png After the sale of tokens ends in one round, the next one will start automatically. REFERRAL SYSTEM Our crew decided to incorporate an extended referral system. We did it to avoid paying our money to large global corporations who profit off advertisements. Instead, we will distribute this money within our community by means of referral system. The system would encompass both ICO and lending programs. Screenshot_272.png.9d6f7aaada356015bb49c7b4df3ce630.png Screenshot_273.png.c25518fcdfd26deb6b24d0c87755c18a.png DISTRIBUTION OF TOKENS The amount of token you bought will be automatically transmitted to your wallet on HighRewardCoin platform, and the same is true for the coins allocated to members of affiliate program as soon as the referrals are approved. The coins are stored in the wallet until the finalization of ICO, and afterwards you may choose to remit them to one of the exchanges listed on our site where they may be traded. MEDIA NEWS WEBSITE WHITEPAPER ANN Community Facebook Twitter Youtube Telegram Google+ my bitcointalk:https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1637615;sa=forumProfile my eth:0x4a9957c05f4a2ff75c2FD44Fe026Cf31A9EdcE53
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The Binary Redemption Review Thinking Buy It? Wait !
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Enigma Code Review Review -System Software - Is It Scam or Legit?
Enigma Code Review Review -System Software - Is It Scam or Legit? What is Enigma Code Software? Does Enigma Code System Software really work? How does Enigma Code Software work? Is Enigma Code Scam? Learn the real truth about Enigma Code in my honest Enigma Code Review below :::: Enigma Code Overview Product complete : Enigma Code Niche: Binary Options Official website : Enigma Code Official Website Money-back Promise : Yes (2 months) Delivery amount : fast Delivery Bonus offer : affirmative($300) Download: Free Enigma Code Review Enigma Code is a unique binary trading software system that has been designed to make profiting from binary options easy for practically anyone in the world. If you are looking for an honest Enigma Code review, continue reading. Have you been thinking about taking part in the binary options trading market? There are a lot of ways for people to become involved in trading these options, but there are inherent problems that come along with any sort of options trading. Many people have traditionally needed to know a lot about the market, so that they could make the right choices, and increase their odds of profiting. This has basically kept the industry closed to outsiders, and anyone who does not have previous knowledge about the market. What is Enigma Code? Before we take a deeper look at what we thought about Enigma Code, check out the features that the creators advertise:
Daily earnings of up to $700. No charge to access this unique, incredibly powerful binary options trading system. A step-by-step guide that explains the system, in simple words, so that anyone can easily understand how to get started. Special access to the VIP area for signals from a leading options broker. Personal coaching so that it's certain each member is getting what they want out of the system.
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